Misinformation, disinformation, and the saturation of information within certain contexts can have negative impacts because people use these to make decisions that affect their future and that of their families and communities. Ideally, with the information provided people should be able to make accurate estimations of the real risk activities carry, but the perception of risk and fear does not match the actual probability of it happening.  Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) recently published its 2024 Q3 report for the National Survey of Urban Public Security (ENSU in Spanish). The report presents data about how the population in urban areas perceive the overall safety of their city and helps governments make decisions regarding appropriate security measures and policies.  This graph shows the percentages of people over 18 who feel unsafe in their city, reported in September 2024. For Fresnillo, it’s 87.9%, and for Zacatecas City, 78.5%. Most people in Zacatecas living in these urban areas believe that they live in communities prone to violence, and with this in mind, make decisions that affect their everyday life and social interactions. In this matter, the cities of Fresnillo and Zacatecas are among the top 5 cities in Mexico that changed their habit of letting minors go out of their home, walking at night, visiting relatives, or carrying valuables with them when in the streets due to the fear of becoming victims of crime. The believe that these activities or actions imposes a risk to themselves, also leads to a greater percentage of the population adopting measures to prevent the possibility of becoming a victim of crime. Image 2.2 identifies Fresnillo among the top 3 cities in the country where people report feeling unsafe in the streets they commonly use in their day-to-day lives. In Fresnillo, the percentage reported is 79.7%, and for the municipality of Zacatecas, 56.9%. In other words, more than half of the people in the urban area of Zacatecas believed that doing usual activities and going out of their homes imposes a risk to themselves.  The report also highlights the asymmetry of risk perception among women and men, with women feeling more insecure in every dimension (approximately 10% points) (Image 1.3). The channels through which people consume information have also changed gradually (Image 1.4). During the first trimester of 2024, the adult population of Mexico was most likely to inform themselves about crime and related news through television (58.6%), followed by Facebook (53.8%), and then conversations with members from their community (53.7%). In the last survey pertaining to the third trimester, the adult population that watches the news on T.V. had slightly increased to 59.9%, and informing themselves through conversations with family members, neighbors and those close to their house increased to 57.6% (4 percentage points more). Facebook however decreased down to 53.8%, but all are still very common as half the population resort to these. The graph makes a distinction between types of conversation environments, as conversations around housing environments are in the top three but lower on the list are conversations around work or school environments. This last category also decreased from 19.4% in the first trimester of 2024 to 18.6 in the third.  Sources: INEGI. (2024). Encuesta Nacional de Seguridad Pública Urbana (ENSU), septiembre 2024: Presentación ejecutiva. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/programas/ensu/doc/ensu2024_septiembre_presentacion_ejecutiva.pdf Observatorio Interactivo de incidencia delictiva. (2024). https://delitosmexico.onc.org.mx/tendencia/zacatecas?unit=folders&indicator=researchFoldersRate&group=month&crime=0&states=32056%2C32017&domain=

The spread of disinformation is not a new issue. The COVID-19 pandemic underscored how quickly false narratives can proliferate, particularly through social media and word of mouth. The World Health Organization (WHO) has highlighted the global challenge of infodemics—where false or misleading information spreads rapidly, influencing public perception and behavior. The variety of impacts that the contagion of false narratives about COVID-19 could have not just psychologically or health-wise, but also in the economic, scientific, social, and political spheres. Within this context, the WHO created guidelines that center people as nodes and parts of an information ecosystem and offered steps that could aid in reducing the spread of misinformation, including receiving, capturing, processing, reacting, storing, sharing, and reproducing data and stories (World Health Organization, 2024). (Image 2.1) A study by Ecker et al. describes what are the socio-affective and cognitive drivers that originate misinformation and false beliefs. Often, people are not responsible of the deliberation part of choosing which information to believe, rely on and repeat. They tend to go with their gut instinct and intuition of what they think might be the right choice instead of pondering with the data available. This may be influenced by confirmation bias and one’s own individual preferences. Added to this, a false belief is strengthened when repeated. When a false piece of information is repeated often enough, people will form a familiarity with it and be more likely to accept it as a truth. Additionally, people often fail to evaluate who the source is or forget if they have published unreliable information in the past. People can also forget if evidence that proves a claim wrong exists. On the bottom side of the graphic, the emotional drivers discussed describe that when a source is written in a way that appeals to people’s emotions, they are more appealing and easier to digest. When it comes to group cohesion, familiarity and a confirmation bias, information that comes from a well-liked person or a member from the same group, an individual will be biased towards trusting it more easily (Ecker et al., 2022). (Image 2.2) In times of heightened tension, whether due to security threats or other phenomena, the public's need for timely, factual updates becomes even more pronounced. When such events occur, the lack of accessible, high-quality reporting can create an information void, leading individuals to seek out or generate alternative narratives that may not always be trustworthy. This situation becomes even more complex when sources are influenced by personal speculations or rumors, which can amplify fear and confusion (Sługocki and Sowa, 2021). In the case of Sinaloa, a neighboring state that has recently seen a big surge in violence, they have been dealing with their own concerns regarding misinformation around security news. After a series of events involving the cartels, waves of information have been flowing, both written and graphic, and often with disparities between sources. When this happens, people are highly likely to start questioning their authorities and official sources, furthering anxiety amongst communities. Instances of a “social psychosis” and a rise in mental health disorders have been reported due to the clashes between cartels and their consequences on the civilian population (Vargas, 2024). In Zacatecas, also families of missing people  face disinformation and fear of threats from criminal groups and it is often non-profit initiatives, like Sangre de mi Sangre (Blood of my Blood) that give guidance to people, articulate research initiatives and have events all throughout Zacatecas to disseminate what to do in such cases and offer empathy to victims (Valle, 2023). Sources: Ecker, U. K. H., Lewandowsky, S., Cook, J., Schmid, P., Fazio, L. K., Brashier, N., Kendeou, P., Vraga, E. K., & Amazeen, M. A. (2022). The psychological drivers of misinformation belief and its resistance to correction. Nature Reviews Psychology, 1(1), 13–29. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44159-021-00006-y Lorenc, T., Petticrew, M., Whitehead, M., Neary, D., Clayton, S., Wright, K., Thomson, H., Cummins, S., Sowden, A., & Renton, A. (2014, March 1). Review of theories and pathways: findings. Crime, Fear of Crime and Mental Health: Synthesis of Theory and Systematic Reviews of Interventions and Qualitative Evidence - NCBI Bookshelf. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK262852/ Sługocki, W., & Sowa, B. (2021). Disinformation as a threat to national security on the example of the COVID-19 pandemic. Security and Defence Quarterly, 35(3), 63–74. https://doi.org/10.35467/sdq/138876 UNDP. (2024) Would I lie to you? https://feature.undp.org/would-i-lie-to-you/?_gl=1*x6ybe7*_gcl_au*NTYzNTE2NTI5LjE3MjU1NTE0NTQ.*_ga*MTU2MzQzNDY3NS4xNzI1NTUxNDcy*_ga_3W7LPK0WP1*MTcyNjA3NzgxMC4xMi4wLjE3MjYwNzc4MTIuNTguMC4w Vargas, O. (2024, September 19). Qué es la ‘psicosis social’, el padecimiento que los habitantes de Culiacán comienzan a sufrir por enfrentamientos entre Los Chapitos y La Mayiza. Infobae. https://www.infobae.com/mexico/2024/09/19/que-es-la-psicosis-social-el-padecimiento-que-los-habitantes-de-culiacan-comienzan-a-sufrir-por-enfrentamientos-entre-los-chapitos-y-la-mayiza/ Valle, L. (2023) Familias desaparecidos enfrentan desinformación. NTR Zacatecas. https://ntrzacatecas.com/2023/11/familias-de-desaparecidos-enfrentan-desinformacion/ World Health Organization. Let’s flatten the infodemic curve. (2024, August 19). https://www.who.int/news-room/spotlight/let-s-flatten-the-infodemic-curve

State Department of Zacatecas, Mexico (Secretaría General de Gobierno, Estado de Zacatecas)

The State Department of Zacatecas, coordinators of federal, state and municipal institutions participating in the State Peace Strategy, has included this project in the pillar “Informed Society”, one of the four pillars of the strategy. The Lab will design participatory workshop methodologies to co-create guidelines with three key sectors related to disinformation and the perception of insecurity: women and youth community leaders, public servants in communication departments related to the State peace strategy, and local traditional and emergent media. The protocol prototypes will inform strategies to respond to disinformation and integrate programs to strengthen capacities that respond to the phenomenon of disinformation in the state based on the local context. The State Department will be assisting in convening all actors and supporting in the scaling of the protocols once completed.