Challenge statement
Challenge type: If you are working on multiple challenges, please indicate if this is your "big bet" or "exploratory" challenge.
Please note: we ask you to only submit a maximum of 3 challenges - 1x Big Bet, 2x Exploratory. Each challenge must be submitted individually.
BIG BET
Challenge statement: What is your challenge? (Please answer in specific terms: "Our challenge is that...”.)
Our challenge is that the continuous crises in Syria have not only compounded vulnerabilities like water scarcity, agricultural decline, and rapid urbanization but have also created a sense of a "locked future," where envisioning sustainable progress seems difficult. The ongoing conflict, combined with sanctions and limited resources, constrains Syria's ability to adopt climate-resilient practices, integrate modern technologies, and implement effective environmental policies. This entrenched state of crisis makes it challenging to imagine an alternative future beyond the current struggles. Here is where foresight becomes invaluable—by enabling us to unlock and explore new, alternative futures that are adaptive, resilient, and sustainable. Through strategic foresight, we can reimagine pathways for Syria, identify opportunities for transformative change, and foster a future where communities and ecosystems are equipped to thrive despite adversity.
Background: What is the history of your challenge? What is causing or driving it? Who is involved? How does the current situation look like? What undesired effects does it produce?
The history of our challenge is deeply rooted in Syria’s prolonged conflict, which has persisted for over a decade, severely impacting every aspect of life. This ongoing crisis has disrupted governance, eroded infrastructure, and strained natural resources, making the country increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Key drivers include:
Political Instability and Conflict: The conflict has displaced millions, damaged infrastructure, and diverted focus and resources from long-term planning to immediate survival.
Sanctions and Economic Isolation: International sanctions have restricted access to technology, funding, and international cooperation, limiting Syria's capacity to adopt climate-resilient solutions.
Environmental Degradation: Years of over-extraction of resources, deforestation, and land mismanagement, coupled with climate stressors like prolonged droughts and extreme weather events, have exacerbated the environmental crisis.
Socio-Economic Challenges: High inflation, poverty, and displacement have widened social inequalities, leaving vulnerable populations with fewer means to adapt to climate challenges.
Stakeholders Involved
Government Entities: Limited capacity to implement and enforce climate policies due to the crisis.
Local Communities: Directly affected by environmental changes, often lacking the resources to adapt.
International Organizations and NGOs: Providing aid and expertise but limited by geopolitical constraints.
Private Sector: Sparse involvement due to economic instability and high risks.
Current Situation
The current scenario is characterized by:
Severe Water Scarcity: Droughts and inefficient water management have led to critical shortages.
Agricultural Decline: Outdated farming techniques and reduced arable land threaten food security.
Rapid Urbanization: Displacement has led to overcrowded urban centers with insufficient infrastructure.
Energy Crisis: Limited access to renewable energy solutions due to economic and technological constraints.
Undesired Effects
Worsening Livelihoods: Farmers and rural communities face economic hardships, pushing them to abandon traditional practices.
Public Health Risks: Poor water quality and urban overcrowding increase health vulnerabilities.
Increased Social Tensions: Competition for scarce resources fuels local conflicts and weakens social cohesion.
Locked Future Perspective: A pervasive sense of hopelessness stifles innovation and long-term planning.
Quantitative evidence: What (official) data sources do you have on this challenge that better exemplifies the importance and urgency of this frontier challenge? You can add text, a link, or a picture.
Water Scarcity:
Syria has experienced a 30% decline in annual rainfall over the past two decades, with severe droughts affecting over 60% of agricultural land.
Euphrates River flows have reduced by more than 40%, exacerbating water stress and reducing hydroelectric power capacity.
Agricultural Decline:
According to FAO, agricultural output has decreased by 50% since 2011, with food insecurity now affecting over 12 million Syrians.
Soil degradation affects nearly 75% of cultivated lands, largely due to unsustainable farming practices and climate impacts.
Urbanization and Displacement:
The UNHCR reports that 6.8 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) now reside in urban centers, with 75% of urban infrastructure heavily damaged or destroyed.
Urban population growth in key cities like Aleppo and Damascus exceeds 7% annually, straining resources and increasing carbon emissions.
Energy and Emissions:
Less than 10% of energy consumption in Syria comes from renewable sources, despite high potential for solar and wind energy.
CO₂ emissions per capita remain low globally but are expected to rise sharply as reconstruction efforts gain momentum without sustainable practices.
Economic and Financial Impact:
Syria’s economy contracted by nearly 60% since 2010, with sanctions and conflict limiting $50 billion in potential climate-related investments.
The World Bank estimates that climate change could reduce Syria’s GDP by an additional 5% annually by 2030 if adaptation measures are not implemented.
Data Sources
FAO Syria Country Brief: FAO Data on Syrian Agriculture
UNHCR Syria Displacement Statistics: UNHCR Data
World Bank Climate Change Impact Report on Syria: World Bank Report
UNDP Reports on Syria’s Energy Sector: UNDP Syria Energy Data
Qualitative evidence: What weak signals have you recently spotted that characterizes its urgency? Please provide qualitative information that better exemplifies the importance and urgency of this frontier challenge. You can add text, a link, or a picture.
Qualitative Evidence: Weak Signals of Urgency
Shifts in Community Behavior:
Increasing reports from rural communities adopting informal water-sharing practices to cope with scarcity, often leading to local disputes and tensions.
Farmers are increasingly abandoning traditional crops like wheat and cotton for drought-resistant alternatives, signaling adaptation under duress but highlighting the fragility of current agricultural systems.
Youth-led Climate Movements: An emerging wave of youth-led digital campaigns advocating for climate action and sustainable development, despite limited resources and platforms. These grassroots efforts highlight growing awareness but also underscore the gap in institutional support.
Climate Migration Trends: Unofficial reports of families from rural areas migrating to cities such as Damascus and Aleppo due to repeated crop failures and lack of livelihood opportunities. This trend exacerbates urban overcrowding and strains already fragile infrastructure.
Urban Heat Islands: Localized observations in cities indicate the formation of urban heat islands, with temperature differences of up to 4°C higher in densely populated areas compared to rural surroundings. This is an early signal of worsening living conditions and energy demand for cooling.
Cultural Shifts in Consumption: Increased visibility of sustainable lifestyle discussions in Syrian social media, where citizens are exploring urban gardening, waste reduction, and renewable energy use, reflecting a growing grassroots consciousness despite limited systemic support.
Biodiversity Loss in Coastal Regions: Fishermen in the Mediterranean coast report significant reductions in fish populations, linked to rising sea temperatures and pollution, posing long-term threats to local livelihoods and food security.
Supporting Observations
Testimonies from local NGOs document how the climate crisis is altering traditional community structures and survival strategies.
Anecdotal evidence from healthcare workers shows an increase in heat-related illnesses and respiratory issues during summer, correlating with rising temperatures and urban pollution.
Value proposition: What added value or unique value proposition is your Accelerator Lab bringing to solving this challenge? Why is it your Lab that needs to work on this challenge and not other actors within UNDP, other stakeholders in the country respectively? Why is it worth investing resources to this challenge?
Future-Oriented Solutions:
Unlike other actors, the Accelerator Lab specializes in exploring alternative futures through foresight, helping to unlock pathways that traditional planning may overlook. This is crucial in Syria, where the ongoing crisis has "locked" the future into seemingly insurmountable challenges.
We enable stakeholders to think beyond immediate constraints, visualizing long-term, sustainable development that is resilient to climate shocks.
Localized and Agile Approach:
Our Lab employs participatory methods to co-create solutions with local communities, ensuring they are contextually relevant and culturally sensitive. This bottom-up approach empowers communities to own and sustain their climate adaptation initiatives.
We quickly prototype and iterate solutions, allowing for rapid testing and scaling of successful interventions tailored to Syria’s unique socio-economic and environmental realities.
Cross-Sector Collaboration and Systems Thinking:
We act as a bridge between various stakeholders—government bodies, international organizations, local communities, and private sector actors—facilitating collaboration and integrating diverse perspectives.
Using systems thinking, the Lab can identify leverage points within Syria’s interconnected challenges, from urbanization and water scarcity to governance and socio-economic development.
Focus on Innovation and Technology:
We explore low-cost, high-impact technological innovations such as climate-resilient agriculture, renewable energy solutions, and digital tools for urban planning, which are often underutilized in Syria due to resource constraints and sanctions.
The Lab fosters local ingenuity, supporting Syrian innovators and entrepreneurs in developing climate-smart solutions from available resources.
Learning and Scaling:
By capturing insights from experimental projects and pilots, we generate evidence-based practices that can be scaled nationally and inform broader UNDP strategies.
We act as an innovation incubator, creating a repository of successful models that other UNDP units and stakeholders can adopt or adapt.
Why This Challenge? Why Now?
Investing resources in this challenge through the Accelerator Lab is a strategic decision because:
Climate change is a crisis multiplier: If unaddressed, it will exacerbate Syria’s existing vulnerabilities and reverse development gains.
Timeliness of action: Early interventions informed by foresight will help prevent irreversible damage and reduce long-term costs.
Leveraging unique capabilities: The Lab’s focus on innovation, adaptability, and inclusivity makes it uniquely suited to navigate the complexities of climate resilience in a fragile context.
Short “tweet” summary: We would like to tweet what you are working on, can you summarize your challenge in a maximum of 280 characters?
Unlocking Syria’s climate future! 🌍💡 Through foresight, co-creation, and innovation, we’re tackling climate challenges amidst ongoing crises, empowering communities, and driving sustainable resilience for a brighter tomorrow. #ClimateAction #Foresight #UNDPAcceleratorLab
Learning questions
Learning question: What is your learning question for this challenge? What do you need to know or understand to work on your challenge statement?
How can foresight methodologies be effectively applied in Syria’s fragile context to unlock alternative climate futures, foster resilience, and drive sustainable development, despite ongoing crises and resource constraints?
To what stage(s) in the learning cycle does your learning question relate?
Sense, Explore
Usage of methods: Relating to your choice above, how will you use your methods & tools for this learning question? What value do these add in answering your learning question?
Brainstorming:
Facilitate diverse stakeholder sessions to generate ideas and explore uncharted aspects of Syria’s climate challenges.
Value: Encourages creative thinking and collective problem-solving, uncovering unconventional solutions.
Future Foresight:
Apply foresight tools like scenario planning and future wheels to map out potential climate futures and their implications.
Value: Helps visualize alternative pathways, enabling proactive planning rather than reactive responses.
Co-Creation:
Engage communities, academia, and policymakers in co-designing climate interventions tailored to local contexts.
Value: Ensures solutions are inclusive, feasible, and community-owned, fostering long-term sustainability.
Horizon Scanning:
Monitor emerging trends, weak signals, and innovations globally and locally that could impact Syria’s climate resilience.
Value: Identifies opportunities and risks early, allowing for adaptive and informed decision-making.
Existing data gaps: Relating to your choice above, what existing gaps in data or information do these new sources of data addressing? What value do these add in answering your learning question?
Lack of Future-Oriented Data:
Current climate data in Syria focuses primarily on historical trends and immediate impacts, with limited insights into long-term scenarios.
Value: Foresight methods like scenario planning and horizon scanning fill this gap by generating future-focused data, enabling better preparedness for potential climate outcomes.
Community-Level Insights:
There is a scarcity of localized data on how different communities perceive and adapt to climate risks.
Value: Co-creation sessions gather qualitative data directly from affected populations, ensuring interventions are contextually relevant and inclusive.
Emerging Risks and Opportunities:
Limited monitoring of weak signals and global trends relevant to Syria’s climate context, such as innovations in water management or sustainable energy.
Value: Horizon scanning addresses this gap, identifying external developments that could influence local strategies.
Interdisciplinary Integration:
Data from disparate sectors (e.g., agriculture, energy, health) often remain siloed, hindering a holistic understanding of climate impacts.
Value: Brainstorming and foresight exercises integrate these data sources, creating a comprehensive view of Syria’s climate challenges and opportunities.
Closing
Early leads to grow: Think about the possible grow phase for this challenge - who might benefit from your work on this challenge or who might be the champions in your country that you should inform or collaborate with early on to help you grow this challenge?
Local Communities and Civil Society Organizations:
Direct beneficiaries of climate-resilient practices and community-driven solutions.
Role: Co-creators and champions in piloting and scaling locally tailored interventions.
Damascus University and Other Academic Institutions:
Partners in research, data collection, and capacity-building efforts.
Role: Provide academic rigor, innovative ideas, and a pipeline of skilled professionals.
Government Ministries (Environment, Agriculture, Water Resources):
Key stakeholders in policy formulation and implementation.
Role: Champions for integrating foresight insights into national climate strategies.
Private Sector and Green Entrepreneurs:
Beneficiaries of new market opportunities in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and climate technology.
Role: Innovators and investors in scaling sustainable solutions.
International Organizations and NGOs:
Supporters of climate adaptation and resilience programs in Syria.
Role: Provide funding, technical expertise, and advocacy to amplify the challenge’s impact.
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6Clean water and sanitation
7Affordable and clean energy
9Industry, innovation and infrastructure
11Sustainable cities and communities
12Responsible consumption and production
13Climate action
14Life below water
15Life on land
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