Challenge statement
Challenge type: If you are working on multiple challenges, please indicate if this is your "big bet" or "exploratory" challenge.
Please note: we ask you to only submit a maximum of 3 challenges - 1x Big Bet, 2x Exploratory. Each challenge must be submitted individually.
EXPLORATORY
Challenge statement: What is your challenge? (Please answer in specific terms: "Our challenge is that...”.)
Our challenge is that people who participate in dialogue find it difficult to address long term needs, inform decisions with available data, and move to action strategically.
Background: What is the history of your challenge? What is causing or driving it? Who is involved? How does the current situation look like? What undesired effects does it produce?
History:
Guatemala transitioned to democracy in 1983 after an internal armed conflict that lasted over 30 years in the context of the ideologically rooted Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. Now, after more than 40 years of electoral democracy, Guatemalan society has not been able to mature its democratic practices to build a shared vision about how to achieve human development in which society is committed to contribute. Instead, there has been competition among small and fragmented social groups that try to impose their narrow interests on others by controlling influence over public institutions. The creation of wealth in Guatemala is strongly reliant on the use of land and low cost labor. This has lead to several missed opportunities and failures to agree and work together to address already complex development challenges of very large magnitude such as: marginalization of social groups, poverty, vulnerability to disasters, violence, among others.
Some of these failures have included the inability to build strong and effective public institutions. Although the 1984 Constitution made very important advances in the recognition of human rights, the institutions to advanced them where weak and ineffective by design, possibly out of fear that one group could use them to threaten the interest of other groups. Since then, attempts to agree on how to strengthen institutions have failed or required enormous pressure from the international community. Examples include several failed attempts to improve political representation, access to justice, public finances and spending, civil service, education, health, infrastructure, management of natural resources, among others.
The democratic regime almost failed in 1993 with a failed coup initiated by the President who attempted to dissolved and uncooperative Congress. A window of opportunity was experienced during the signing of the Peace Accords between Army Officials, Insurgency Leaders, and Central Government in 1996. However, the lack of dialogue and collaboration in society resulted in a lack of support from the public, who voted against the recommendations from the accords.
As the root causes of human development challenges remained unaddressed in an integral way, Guatemala followed into a period of intense polarization around transitional justice for human rights violations during the armed conflict. This scenario os social tension compounded with new pressures such as: increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (particularly storms and droughts), worldwide financial crisis, cross-national organized and violent crime, support for authoritarian/populist leaders, misinformation, pandemics, and other challenging world trends. Adding to this, the establishment of a Commission Against Impunity (CICIG) from 2006 to 2019, which linked corruption from criminal organizations with powerful elites, lead to increased confrontation between social groups and a political backlash condemming the intromission of the international community. Moreover, antagonism between social groups has been powered by new communications technologies, weakening of independent news, and shrinkage spaces for the participation of civil society.
The general elections in 2023 almost saw the collapse of the democratic system. After the expulsion of CICIG, the coalition in power consolidated control of the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial branches of government. In particular, after the General Attorney (Jefa del Ministerio Público) was reelected, with the support of the Constitutional Court and no counterweight, her actions threatened to invalidate the electoral results. Despite this, the surprising decision of citizens to elect a president with strong democratic convictions has opened new opportunities to learn how to overcome the barriers to dialogue and collaboration for development.
Causes or drivers:
With the collaboration of a diverse group of professionals, we looked to identify some of the economical, legal, political, social, technological, environmental causes that dialogue and collaboration for development has barriers. The group included women and men with different ages and ethnicities, expertise in fields such as political science, international relations, anthropology, sociology, economics, local development, and affiliation with think tanks, social organizations, private companies, news media outlets, public administration, and political parties. All the participants had a trajectory of commitment to dialogue and identified a pattern that drives antagonism between groups regarding development policies.
The pattern goes as follows. When a policy dialogue threatens a political, economic, or social interest of powerful actores, they activate persuasive or coercive mechanisms to force society to take positions. Some of the persuasive mechanisms include: appealing to the threat of loosing deeply held values; appealing to the threat of loosing self determination; or exacerbating stereotypes or past grievances. Among the coercive mechanisms are limiting access to satisfying needs or services (such as health, employment, security or social status), as well as enforcing social norms such as loyalty, reproducing attitudes and behaviors. In resistance to the mechanisms to incite antagonism, the society can responde by counteracting messages of fear or hate, managing emotions, sacrificing access to satisfactory, prioritizing personal relations over opinions, activating institutional mechanisms for dialogue. How difficult is to engage in dialogue and collaboration depends on the balance between mechanisms to incite and mechanisms to resist social confrontation.
According to the group, the main drivers of cooperative dialogue that have the most effect and their future values are the most uncertain include: (1) institutional capacity to represent social interests and solve conflicts; (2) reach and credibility of messages that create fear, hate or isolation; (3) commitment from the elites to compete through democratic means; (4) capacity of people to manage their emotions in the face of provocations; (5) social cohesion across diverse groups; (6) degree of dependance from people to social groups to satisfy needs. Additional causes included: history of social fragmentation, economic inequality, asymmetric political representation, among others. Interestingly, the reference to an economic model that relies on protecting privilege access to resources was not necessarily considered the cause.
Actors involved:
This challenge involves the whole society, but in particular political, social, and economic elites. Within the anticipated work, some public institutions include: the Presidency and the institutions represented in the System of Local Development Committees. Some actors from civil society include: Academia, Think Tanks, News Media, as well as representatives from Indigenous Groups, Women, and Youth. Some actors from the private sector include: private companies linked to the use of natural resources or land, financial companies, and corporate social security. Some actors within UNDP's country office include: Governance and Local Development programatic areas.
Current situation:
As mentioned in the historical section, the current situation is one with a long trajectory of failed dialogue; however, with an new window of opportunity to advance dialogue as a result of a recently elected government with strong democratic convictions.
Regarding the three most important variables in the analysis, currently, public institutions and civil servants continue to be characterized as being absent, have limited capacities, or responde to conflict only in extraordinary circumstances and according to the power of actors involved. Also, currently, discourse and campaigns that incite fear, hate or isolation do gain a lot of attention, but tend to be opportunistic. Their results are uncertain and difficult to control, mainly creating chaos, confusion or distraction. Finally, currently elites are neither committed to democratic completion, but haven't turned violent yet. Mainly, the main way for elites to compete is impatient and intolerant. Mistrust prevails, so coordination is generally limited to defend from common threats, resisting change, and limiting the power of rivals.
Undesired effects:
As mentioned in the sections before, the main undesired effect of not overcoming the barriers to dialogue and cooperation is missing opportunities to implement coordinated actions to solve development problems using the knowledge and resources already available. Without dialogue and cooperation, the root causes of development challenges will remain unaddressed, compounding with additional pressures. The risk is further erosion of the democratic regimes, a return to authoritarian leaders, increase poverty and inequality, violence and migration.
Regarding the three most important variables in the analysis, the most undersized outcomes is that public institutions and civil servants systematically suppress the expression of interests that oppose the dominant coalition, using public institutions with discretion to impose particular interests. Also, it will be undesirable that discourse and campaigns that incite fear, hate or isolation become effective at distorting reality in deliberative ways, provoking violent behaviors. Finally, the way elites compete could easily recur to violence, considering the mere existence of rivales threatening and intolerable.
Quantitative evidence: What (official) data sources do you have on this challenge that better exemplifies the importance and urgency of this frontier challenge? You can add text, a link, or a picture.
From the AmericasBarometer by LAPOP (2023) (www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop) we know that 65.1% of Guatemalans consider that they have very little freedom to express political opinions without fear; support for democracy is only 55.6% and declining, and trust in the executive is only 27.6%. Moreover, according to Varieties of Democracy (2022) political polarization, de degree in which political opinion affects social relations, increased from 1.54 in 2010 to 2.79 in 2022. Also, social polarization, the degree in which difference in opinions lead to confrontation, aggravated from 1.37 in 200 to 0.48 in 2022.
Qualitative evidence: What weak signals have you recently spotted that characterizes its urgency? Please provide qualitative information that better exemplifies the importance and urgency of this frontier challenge. You can add text, a link, or a picture.
The increase of journalists and activist for social justice who are seen to go into exile due to a perceived selective persecution is an important signal that the capacity for dialogue and collaboration were shrinking. Also, compared to ten or fifteen years ago, the frequency of spaces for dialogue lead by civil society regarding development policies has reduced significantly, as well as the content featuring them by news outlets. Deliberation regarding policies for development had basically disappeared in Congress. Even when technical studies such as the Human Development National Report was about to be released, camps formed in public opinion accusing it from not being critical enough. The discussion of a wide variety of development topics are easily reduced to simplistic ideological identities; for example, mining, indigenous rights, management of water, corruption, diversity of sexual preferences, reproductive rights, regulating economic competition, among others.
Imagen: https://lahora.gt/nacionales/agencia-afp/2023/10/05/bloqueos-se-intensifican-en-cuarto-dia-de-protesta-postelectoral-en-guatemala/
Value proposition: What added value or unique value proposition is your Accelerator Lab bringing to solving this challenge? Why is it your Lab that needs to work on this challenge and not other actors within UNDP, other stakeholders in the country respectively? Why is it worth investing resources to this challenge?
By introducing innovations, the Accelerator Lab will contribute to reducing barriers to dialogue and collaboration between society and public institutions. The relevance of the Accelerator Lab lies in that this is an unresolved complex problem with uncertainty. Although other actors within UNDP have great expertise and experience supporting and promoting dialogue, they have not incorporated the potential benefits of new methodologies to anticipate the future, use of emerging physical and digital technologies, alternative ways of informing dialogue with data, or connecting global experiences. It is worth investing in reducing the barriers to dialogue and cooperation, because not doing so risks violence or continued stagnation, and limits the effectiveness of current resources and knowledge available to act.
Short “tweet” summary: We would like to tweet what you are working on, can you summarize your challenge in a maximum of 280 characters?
UNDP's Accelerator Lab in Guatemala is contributing to overcome barriers to dialogue and cooperation for development using innovative methodologies, technologies, data analysis, global experiences, and strategic action.
Partners
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the partner:
Peace Building Fund
What sector does our partner belong to?
United Nations
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
We are supporting projects financed by the Peace Building Fund that aim to reduce conflicts due to water management by strengthening institutions, civil society, and the inclusion of indigenous groups, women, and youth.
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
No
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the partner:
System of Local Development Committees (SISCODE)
What sector does our partner belong to?
Government (&related)
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
The System of Local Development Committees (SISCODE) actually engages the representation of the state apparatus for development at the local level. Institutions such as the Secretariat of Executive Coordination of the Presidency (SCEP) and the General Secretariat for Planing of the Presidency (SEGEPLAN), have the mandate coordinate SISCODE, and we will be working closely with them, along with Local Governments, to incorporate innovations for the dialogues held between society and public institutions.
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
Yes
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the partner:
Private Secretariat of the Presidency (SPP)
What sector does our partner belong to?
Government (&related)
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
We anticipate to collaborate wit the Private Secretariat of the Presidency (SPP) who will be assuming responsibilities for the national system for dialogue. We will support with innovations that contribute to their role in anticipating crisis and coordinating the response to dialogue.
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
Yes
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the partner:
An alliance of academic institutions for data analysis
What sector does our partner belong to?
Academia
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
We have become part of an alliance of universities and research institutions that will analyze data for development. The collaboration will consist in exploring ways in which data can inform dialogue.
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
Yes
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