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Please be aware that the content herein has not been peer reviewed. It consists of personal reflections, insights, and learnings of the contributor(s). It may not be exhaustive, nor does it aim to be authoritative knowledge.
Title
Please provide a name for your action learning plan.
Anticipatory Governance for Climate and Demographic Change
Challenge statement
Challenge type: If you are working on multiple challenges, please indicate if this is your "big bet" or "exploratory" challenge.
Please note: we ask you to only submit a maximum of 3 challenges - 1x Big Bet, 2x Exploratory. Each challenge must be submitted individually.
EXPLORATORY
Challenge statement: What is your challenge? (Please answer in specific terms: "Our challenge is that...”.)
The challenge is the readiness of governance systems in Malaysia to tackle the dual threats of climate change and demographic change.
Background: What is the history of your challenge? What is causing or driving it? Who is involved? How does the current situation look like? What undesired effects does it produce?
Governing systems--in Malaysia as elsewhere--are siloed and often focused on short-term outcomes. While climate is becoming more central in the development agenda, the pace and magnitude of action remain insufficient, and coordinated action to prepare for its impacts is difficult due to institutional structures.
Quantitative evidence: What (official) data sources do you have on this challenge that better exemplifies the importance and urgency of this frontier challenge? You can add text, a link, or a picture.
Malaysia's population is aging, and by 2040, 14.5% of the population will be 65+, up from 7.3% in 2022. https://www.dosm.gov.my/v1/index.php?r=column/pdfPrev&id=Y3kwU2tSNVFDOWp1YmtZYnhUeVBEdz09 In 2020, the median EPF (mandatory retirement savings programme) savings for those between 50-54 was RM 39,585, generating a monthly income of just RM 165. with average savings of RM 119,960. Two thirds of working-age adults are uncovered by EPF or public pension, including seven million outside the labour force (mostly women). https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/state-nation-putting-oldage-security-within-reach-malaysians-without-public-pension-rm1-mil
Meanwhile, ASEAN countries are at high risk of GDP impacts from climate change due to physical risks. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/impact-climate-change-global-gdp/ 29,800 square kilometres of land – within which five million people reside – are already vulnerable, with area projected to increase. The median increase in the population affected by an extreme river flood (90th percentile event) by 2035-2044 as a result of climate change is approximately 102,290 people. https://www.thestar.com.my/lifestyle/health/the-doctor-says/2022/07/05/the-effects-of-climate-change-in-malaysia#:~:text=%E2%80%9CApproximately%20six%20percent%20of%20palm,from%20sea%2Dlevel%20rise.%E2%80%9D&text=Climate%20change%20influences%20food%20production,effects%20on%20crop%20growth%20processes.
Furthermore, climate change impacts could reduce Malaysia’s economic growth by 20% by 2050. https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/climate-change-could-cut-malaysian-economic-growth-20-below-expectations-2050-%E2%80%94-report
The Malaysian government has limited fiscal space to deal with these dual challenges. In 2021, “rigid operation expenditures” (emoluments, retirement charges, and debt service payments) took up two-thirds of federal government revenue. https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/limited-fiscal-space-remains-key-challenge-malaysia-%E2%80%94-world-bank And, government analysis, reporting, and action on climate change and demographic change treat the two as separate, non-intersecting issues.
Qualitative evidence: What weak signals have you recently spotted that characterizes its urgency? Please provide qualitative information that better exemplifies the importance and urgency of this frontier challenge. You can add text, a link, or a picture.
Malaysia has had multiple changes in government over the past five years, weakening institutional structures. Through UNDP projects and partnerships with the Government, we have found that the Economic Planning Unit--meant to coordinate priorities and actions across ministries--has lost capacity to do so.
Value proposition: What added value or unique value proposition is your Accelerator Lab bringing to solving this challenge? Why is it your Lab that needs to work on this challenge and not other actors within UNDP, other stakeholders in the country respectively? Why is it worth investing resources to this challenge?
The CO Management has tasked the AccLab with taking up the challenge of Foresight and Anticipatory Governance, to position UNDP in this space in the Malaysian context and to break ground for the future. The AccLab is also well-positioned for the inter-team work required for this challenge.
Short “tweet” summary: We would like to tweet what you are working on, can you summarize your challenge in a maximum of 280 characters?
We are exploring what future-proof governance systems able to take on climate and demographic change look like.
Partners
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the Parter:
Sunway University
What sector does our partner belong to?
Academia
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
We are looking for them to be a knowledge partner on this work.
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
Yes
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the Parter:
Malaysian Industry-Government Group for High Technology
What sector does our partner belong to?
Government (&related)
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
Aim to build a collaboration on foresight
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
No
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the Parter:
RBAP Foresight Network
What sector does our partner belong to?
United Nations
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
Knowledge resource and community of practice
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
No
Learning questions
Learning question: What is your learning question for this challenge? What do you need to know or understand to work on your challenge statement?
Does linking climate with other ongoing development challenges through foresight (1) increase buy-in on climate action and (2) make an effective case for building institutional capacity for coordinated and future-oriented governance? We need to build and disseminate a foresight product to test these.
To what stage(s) in the learning cycle does your learning question relate?
Sense, Explore, Test
Usage of methods: Relating to your choice above, how will you use your methods & tools for this learning question? What value do these add in answering your learning question?
Systems thinking will be used to identify inter-related systems that both climate change and demographic change will impact. Horizon scanning will be used to build foresight scenarios, which will in turn be used to for future analysis of governance systems. The country office will make use of this prototype foresight product to engage government partners.
Existing data gaps: Relating to your choice above, what existing gaps in data or information do these new sources of data addressing? What value do these add in answering your learning question?
We are too early in the process to properly identify all the gaps in knowledge. We expect this to be a snowball process.
Closing
Early leads to grow: Think about the possible grow phase for this challenge - who might benefit from your work on this challenge or who might be the champions in your country that you should inform or collaborate with early on to help you grow this challenge?
We are looking toward the Economic Planning Unit to take up a more proactive role in inter-ministerial coordination and direction on long-term strategic challenges. This work could also create a partnership with Sunway University on planeteray health and governance.
END OF ACTION LEARNING PLAN: Thank you! The form saves automatically and your submission has been recorded. You may now exit this window.
8Decent work and economic growth
13Climate action
16Peace, justice and strong institutions
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