Challenge statement
Challenge type: If you are working on multiple challenges, please indicate if this is your "big bet" or "exploratory" challenge.
Please note: we ask you to only submit a maximum of 3 challenges - 1x Big Bet, 2x Exploratory. Each challenge must be submitted individually.
EXPLORATORY
Challenge statement: What is your challenge? (Please answer in specific terms: "Our challenge is that...”.)
Our challenge is that Uzbekistan faces systemic issues related to employment. Uzbekistan suffers from high unemployment, informality in the labor market, low productivity, the mismatch between supply and demand, dire needs to improve the education system, untapped potential in sustainable resource usage, lack of diversified approach, etc. With that, we started to identify potential entry points for systemic impact by leveraging the distinct capabilities of UNDP and its key partners.
For Phase 1 (2021) AccLab, in collaboration with UNDP Uzbekistan colleagues (all UNDP clusters), worked on designing the FoW portfolio using a system thinking approach. During the Problem phase, we explored what, how, and why the problem manifests in the system and how we can intervene in the continually changing Future of the Work space. In this phase, we explored our identity in the system as UNDP and the needs, resources, and conditions around the work ecosystem to understand and identify the systemic issues and occurrences with a holistic view. Based on these insights, we formulated our ‘intent.’ An ‘intent‘ is a stated determination to design the Portfolio of Discovery and Strategic Options to coherently move toward the outcome sought by an agent. Crystallizing the Intent laid the foundation for the following – Solution Stage. In the solution phase, we built our hypothesis based on our understanding of the ecosystem. We identified the Areas of interest (Digital Labour Market, Social Resilience, and Green Transition) and Positions relevant to the intent.
For Phase 2 (2022), a further sensemaking process brought out the need to start activating the portfolio with a more targeted focus that would diversify the existing programming and help showcase how the portfolio approach can bring a more systemic lens into the programming. This would help the country office to move to portfolio-based programming in phases, and the portfolio wouldn’t compete with or disrupt the previously activated projects. Still, it would provide additional value through diversification. The sensemaking process helped to identify three potential focuses -Systemic Demonstrators, with Key Target Groups. The design group selected to start Option Design with the Migrants target group. The design of the FOW portfolio focusing on the target group of migrants was finalized in August 2022. The report includes seven blueprints of portfolio options (interventions) categorized under various thematic areas of interest and positions.
In current Phase 3, the finalization of the design process was followed by the UNDP global exercises aiming to prepare and enable the organization for transformative changes - the Portfolio Implementation Framework (PIF). Given its early adopter status with the Future of Work portfolio design exercise, UNDP Uzbekistan is one of the three country offices in the UNDP RBEC region selected for this global exercise. This phase includes the Portfolio Activation and Dynamic Management phases of the FOW portfolio. It will have a dual focus on the aspects of the programmatic coherence (verticals) and the systemic integration/business model (horizontals). We aim to develop the FOW portfolio design results into a strategic and coherent development offer and a practical and efficient programmatic and operational delivery model for the national government counterparts, the private sector, the civil society, and the donors. The development offer and the programmatic and delivery model should establish a structure allowing more dynamic and holistic management of the programmes around FoW while acknowledging that the previous programming is still project-based.
Background: What is the history of your challenge? What is causing or driving it? Who is involved? How does the current situation look like? What undesired effects does it produce?
A low labor participation rate Uzbekistan’s relatively low labor force participation rate is one of the main risks to future economic growth. The economically inactive population (including discouraged youth) accounts for approximately 25 %of the total working-age population. The engagement of women in the labor market also remains low. The share of women in the labor force is around 40%. Predominantly women are concentrated in certain areas like education or health and are effectively excluded from some other areas. Under usage of the talent of the youth and women may seriously hinder prospects of positive qualitative transformations and preparation of the country for the future of work. On the other hand, the exclusion of these groups is related to a plethora of social problems like domestic violence, youth crime, and others. Leveraging changes in the changing nature of the work and situation in the labor markets will require effective usage of all available “resources”, including human capital.
Currently, the Uzbek economy can’t provide jobs for the available workforce resulting in an oversupply of labor resources. About 2 million migrants work in Russia, which hosts about 90% of all Uzbek migrants. Usually, migrants are young and energetic people. Thus, the quality of the labor force is negatively affected, and we also lose a chance to involve them in targeted professional reskilling/upskilling programs.
The country's education system desperately needs reforms to become adaptive, responsive, and effective, especially in professional training and tertiary education. Quality of education is a fundamental enabler of progressive changes. Outcomes related to the risk of an inadequate education system are a deficit of high and mid-skilled specialists, increased skills mismatch, limitation of the growth of science, research, and innovations ecosystems, and deterioration of cadre quality, including in governance and critical institutions.
Through our design process, we chose migrant workers were chosen as the first target group. 2.5-4 million Uzbek citizens are external labor migrants. Annual transfer of remittances from external migrants varies around 6-8 billion USD or more than 10% of the GDP. Only in the first quarter of 2022, as an immediate consequence of the war in Ukraine and following sanctions on Russia, 133 thousand of migrants had to return from Russia. The trend may continue and intensify if the crisis lingers on. There is also an active internal migration in Uzbekistan, mainly determined by urbanization and relatively better opportunities in urban areas, mainly in Tashkent and the Tashkent region. Overall implications of the crisis in Ukraine may also affect the Uzbek economy, which in turn reflects on the economic and social situation in the country, affecting the most vulnerable migrants among them. All this creates systemic level pressure on the economy and risks social stability and development strategies. Thus, targeting systemic structures that can create more opportunities for returning and internal migrants is deemed more urgent and relevant in the current context.
Quantitative evidence: What (official) data sources do you have on this challenge that better exemplifies the importance and urgency of this frontier challenge? You can add text, a link, or a picture.
From the figure below, we can see that a significant % of the population belongs to the informal sector, including migrant workers, women, and young unemployed groups. Looking for a job outside the country for many families brings a lot of negative impacts, for example, family separations, unsafe working environment, absence of any benefits, etc. There is a lot of gap between women and the labor market, where economically active females do not have stable, financially sufficient jobs,
Qualitative evidence: What weak signals have you recently spotted that characterizes its urgency? Please provide qualitative information that better exemplifies the importance and urgency of this frontier challenge. You can add text, a link, or a picture.
The economy of Uzbekistan is very dependent on agriculture. The share of agricultural output in GDP is about 25%, and it employs 23% of the total active labor force. At the same time, almost 50% of the population lives in rural areas. The increased frequency of natural disasters is a potential issue for Uzbekistan. Estimates show increases in the number of mudflows and avalanches are expected up until 2050. Lack of water resources and land degradation are currently threatening the productivity of this sector. Increasing air temperatures associated with global warming significantly threaten this sector, reducing the available water for irrigation.
Rise of automation and other 4th Industrial Revolution technologies - The rise of automation and other technologies globally may, on one side, allow Uzbekistan to adapt and harness the benefits. Still, it can also catch the country unprepared and disrupt the evolution of the labor markets and progress in attaining its development goals. Today, technological change automates jobs, gives rise to the platform economy, and erodes medium-skilled occupations created by the earlier wave of technological change. In our interviews, this has been noted as both a challenge and an opportunity. Currently, Uzbekistan’s economic comparative advantage largely mainly builds on the low labor costs and relatively cheaper energy. But as automation, robotics, and other associated technologies evolve, Uzbekistan’s edge on cheap labor may gradually diminish. Another, probably even more important, effect of automation and technological advancements is that they alter the demand-supply balance and change the labor markets' characteristics by influencing the demand skills, social norms, and bargaining power of the sides, etc.
Value proposition: What added value or unique value proposition is your Accelerator Lab bringing to solving this challenge? Why is it your Lab that needs to work on this challenge and not other actors within UNDP, other stakeholders in the country respectively? Why is it worth investing resources to this challenge?
AccLab at UNDP Uzbekistan is aimed to design and present the first portfolio on the Future of Work based on a system thinking approach. Employment and work-related issues, especially among the migrants, the young generation, women, and informal workers, are of a high degree of complexity. The high speed of change, the interconnectedness, and unmanageable dynamics make decision-making and problem-solving in this space complex. Single-point solutions cannot tackle the complexity and uncertainty produced by social system structures. If we want to tackle today’s development challenges, we must make sense of the system and provide a deliberate set of connected interventions with strategic coherence.
Short “tweet” summary: We would like to tweet what you are working on, can you summarize your challenge in a maximum of 280 characters?
AccLab Uzbekistan is developing a Future of Work portfolio to understand and tackle employment challenges by applying an adaptive portfolio approach to affect the system making it more responsive, resilient, and sustainable.
Partners
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the Parter:
Ministry of Employment and Poverty Reduction
What sector does our partner belong to?
Government (&related)
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
Formerly known as the Ministry for Employment and Labor Relations is one of the critical UNDP partners in the area. The Ministry already implements several vital projects with UNDP related to employment, income generation, skills development, and job creation activities. UNDP and the Ministry can join together to strengthen the portfolio and ensure its effective implementation.
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
No
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the Parter:
Khomikimiyats (Local Authorities)
What sector does our partner belong to?
Government (&related)
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
Local authorities responsible for the overall socio-economic development of the region (preschool, public schools, addressing unemployment, investment projects, and regional economic development)
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
No
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the Parter:
Agency for Youth Affairs
What sector does our partner belong to?
Government (&related)
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
The Agency for Youth Affairs of Uzbekistan is a government agency responsible for implementing youth policy in Uzbekistan. The agency is responsible for creating and implementing programs to support the education, employment, and social welfare of young people in Uzbekistan. It also works to promote the participation of youth in the political and social life of the country.
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
No
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the Parter:
Education/vocational training centers
What sector does our partner belong to?
Private Sector
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
They are agile in responding to the changes in the labor market by offering specialized/niche courses as soon as there is minimal demand. They are also popular as de-institutionalized or add-on options to complement traditional education providers (schools, universities, and professional colleges). The education/vocational centers market is very dynamic. They could support capacity-building programs in future skills and future jobs, improving business skills to be financially viable in the internal market. We can also help them improve their courses' content in the most demanded future skills.
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
Yes
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the Parter:
Specialized NGOs
What sector does our partner belong to?
Civil Society
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
UNDP will consult with the Civil Society Organizations/Institutes on key problems of migrants and actively engage them in developing policy instruments and their implementation, oversight/monitoring, and evaluation.
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
Yes
Learning questions
Learning question: What is your learning question for this challenge? What do you need to know or understand to work on your challenge statement?
1 - How can we enable efficient exchanges and appropriate responses to supply and demands of the labor market to increase market competitiveness at regional and global levels
2 - How can we create an improved working environment and increase resiliency against shocks and disruptions, including but not only limited to social welfare, child & healthcare, infrastructure, and supporting mechanisms
3 - How can we effectively utilize environmental resources in a sustainable manner to create green jobs and support market
4 - How can we integrate the FoW portfolio approach to the UNDP CO work by involving and developing a united vision for all clusters
To what stage(s) in the learning cycle does your learning question relate?
Explore, Test, Grow
Usage of methods: Relating to your choice above, how will you use your methods & tools for this learning question? What value do these add in answering your learning question?
Collective intelligence - directly links to the designing portfolio by collecting resources from the different intelligence groups (for example, during workshops with colleagues of UNDP from different clusters and projects). Collaborative work on the issues of Future of Works will be spotted from different angles, expertise, opinions, and perspectives.
System thinking will help us design a portfolio and see all aspects from different perspectives and angles to see the whole structure and cycles of the system instead of having the classic projects aimed at resolving only narrow issues.
Visual Thinking and Mapping - to visualize ecosystems, partners, stakeholders, and other aspects of the portfolio.
Sensemaking - to deal with complex situations, we need to see the whole picture of the projects and solutions to start the design of the portfolio.
Pilots - the interventions may be run in form of pilots or experiments.
Existing data gaps: Relating to your choice above, what existing gaps in data or information do these new sources of data addressing? What value do these add in answering your learning question?
The above methods will be used in finalizing the portfolio and implementing dynamic portfolio management.
1No poverty
8Decent work and economic growth
10Reduced innequalities
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