Challenge statement
Challenge type: If you are working on multiple challenges, please indicate if this is your "big bet" or "exploratory" challenge.
Please note: we ask you to only submit a maximum of 3 challenges - 1x Big Bet, 2x Exploratory. Each challenge must be submitted individually.
BIG BET
Challenge statement: What is your challenge? (Please answer in specific terms: "Our challenge is that...”.)
Our challenge is that in a context of polarization the political divide is undermining the ability of politicians to come to an agreement on crucial policies to overcome a deep economic crisis. Consequently, amidst the rise of poverty and lack of credibility of our ruling class, people are increasingly skeptical, the support of democracy and political parties is declining, and many voters are now likely to support populist anti-system leaders.
Background: What is the history of your challenge? What is causing or driving it? Who is involved? How does the current situation look like? What undesired effects does it produce?
The situation:
The next presidential elections will be held in October 2023. This will be a historic milestone since it will inaugurate 40 years of democracy. This is a glorious event for the life of the country.
At the same time, Argentina is facing a deep economic crisis with a 100% of inflation rate, a poverty rate of almost 40% of the population, and five consecutive months of stagnation. The crisis has been only worsened by the economic consequences of the pandemic, the war, the rise of oil prices, and severe climate events, such as the worse drought ever. The drought has a negative impact on the export of soybeans and other grains, one of the main sources of income and foreign exchange in the country.
This situation forces the government to face deep distributive struggles and social unrest.
At the same time, a political divide and political polarization, and even political struggles within the federal government, hamper the chances to establish basic and long-lasting agreements aiming at undertaking the actions required to solve this and many other problems.
The discontent led people to distrust the ruling class, and the support for antisystem populist leaders is growing. Although the support of democracy is still high if compared with other countries, all these ingredients are a boiling room for the erosion of civic values and the legitimacy of the government.
Dialogue and consensus building are urgent. Several studies (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10584609.2019.1698681) have shown that people agree in their values and policy priorities, and it is only when partisan positions appear that they confront. The public attention on the 40-year anniversary of democracy is a unique opportunity to call attention to these basic values that citizens share to create new arenas and instances of convergence and mutual understanding.
The opportunity:
UNDP is in a unique position to lead this dialogue for different reasons. It led the national dialog https://erc.undp.org/evaluation/evaluations/detail/1240 in the deep 2001 economic crisis. It is also the guardian of the institutional memory of the State, that in Argentina tends to change completely from one presidential administration to another, many times hampering the chance to learn from previous experiences. UNDP supports the government in achieving the ODS and veil for the persistence of the best policies and practices. It is also a driver of innovation for the State.
The tools:
We will use Artificial Intelligence (AI) to create the presidential speech of all the Argentines. We will analyze the opening speeches of legislative sessions given by the 9 elected presidents who took office since the return of democracy in 1983, using AI algorithms and examine the common values of the Argentine people. Thanks to the reputation of the UNDP, which is beyond discussion and over the political divide, we will promote public action and invite presidential candidates to commit to using this speech as the base of the new presidential opening in December 2023 when the next president takes office.
The constant changes to which the world is exposed require public institutions to adapt quickly to new demands and ways of managing provided by new technologies.
The Lower House of the Argentine Congress has previously ventured into an experience of linking its activities with AI applications. The “Smart Parliament” project, the first algorithm created and trained specifically for the legislative field in Argentina, was carried out together with a group of scientists from The National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET by its Spanish Acronym).
The Project developed an app that works with the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) algorithm, analyzing and encompassing deputies' speeches archived since 2005. Through the app, the algorithm reviews dissertations, looks for the co-occurrence of words, and extracts 40 topics without human intervention. Today the result of this first experience is available and freely accessible on the web. (Source:: https://www4.hcdn.gob.ar/icap/archivos/Inteligencia-artificial-y-politica-1668028317.pdf)
In the exercise of political activity, AI has also been used in:
Speech Generation: The Chat GPT model has been used by some politicians and organizations to create campaign speeches and other political materials. Source: https://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-rep-jake-auchincloss-reads-speech-written-by-chatgpt-artificial-intelligence-to-congress/42670994
Speech analysis: AI has also been used to analyze political speeches and determine their effectiveness. Algorithms are also used to analyze speech content and search and find similarities between the discourses of opposing political parties.and find similarities between the discourses of opposing political parties (Source: https://towardsdatascience.com/using-artificial-neural-networks-to-analyze-presidential-speeches-6fbd446c5bad)
Quantitative evidence: What (official) data sources do you have on this challenge that better exemplifies the importance and urgency of this frontier challenge? You can add text, a link, or a picture.
According to information from Latinobarómetro, quoted by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) proxies, democracy support and trust in ruling class electoral institutions and political parties have been declining in Argentina. Find more details in this link https://www.cepal.org/es/analisis-la-inclusion-cohesion-social-america-latina-caribe-la-luz-pilar-social-la-agenda-2030-0
Argentina: Evolution of the evaluation of democracy as a form of government, trust in electoral institutions and political parties, 2010-2020. (percentages)
Source Eclac
Argentines are not polarized around policy issues but around political parties and leaders
The following figures show that, when people are asked about their support for certain policies, their level of support is conditional to the political party or leader endorsing them. The good news is that there is room for consensus building around common values and concerns. However, as long as people reject any initiative from certain politicians regardless of its content, a neutral party is needed as a mediator and facilitator of the dialogue, and this is what shows the need and the opportunity for the UNDP to start this conversation with a tool not developed by any party but by an artificial intelligence device.
Source Levy Yeyati, Moscovich, and Abuin 2020
Qualitative evidence: What weak signals have you recently spotted that characterizes its urgency? Please provide qualitative information that better exemplifies the importance and urgency of this frontier challenge. You can add text, a link, or a picture.
AI is a set of techniques and algorithms that allow machines to learn from experience and make decisions based on data and patterns. In simple terms, AI is an intelligent system that can perform tasks that would normally require human intervention. In the context of democracy, this can be a powerful tool for improving transparency, citizen participation, and decision-making.
In Argentina, the government is leading the conversation on this issue. The UNDP is also adopting tools mainly to counterbalance disinformation. For instance, it uses EMonitor+, an AI-powered tool to promote access to reliable information and reduce the impact of harmful content online. https://www.undp.org/arab-states/emonitor-plus
There is an emerging use of these techniques for governance. One of the main applications of AI in democracy is the creation of secure and reliable electronic voting systems. It can improve the efficiency and accuracy of electoral processes and reduce the risk of fraud and human error. Additionally, it can be used to analyze large amounts of electoral data, such as voting patterns and voter preferences, which can help politicians and leaders make more informed, data-driven decisions.
ChatGPT, an AI language model that has triggered the interest of institutions and citizens globally, is a good example. It can improve government services, overcome language barriers and automate organizational processes. It has the ability to customize responses, mimic styles, and even write software, all in near-perfect natural language. Through the responsible and ethical use of AI, fairer and more equitable systems can be created to promote participation and equality in democracy.
Other sources
https://democracy-technologies.org/opinion/the-team-tested-how-chatgpt-could-be-useful-for-democracy-technologies/
https://www.forbesindia.com/article/lifes/how-artificial-intelligence-is-branching-out-into-politics/80717/1
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/deepfake-democracy-south-korean-candidate-goes-virtual-for-votes
Value proposition: What added value or unique value proposition is your Accelerator Lab bringing to solving this challenge? Why is it your Lab that needs to work on this challenge and not other actors within UNDP, other stakeholders in the country respectively? Why is it worth investing resources to this challenge?
As said before, UNDP is in a unique position to lead this dialogue. First due to its reliability and reputation among all the involved stakeholders. UNDP is a neutral mediator beyond the political divide. At UNDP Argentina, we lead innovation and started exploring the different uses of AI tools in the context of elections and democracy. We also led the public campaigns with higher reach within the office.
Short “tweet” summary: We would like to tweet what you are working on, can you summarize your challenge in a maximum of 280 characters?
Join the UNDP to write the opening speech for the new Argentine presidential inauguration. Innovation and history converge to celebrate #40YearsOfDemocracy
We are nation, we have a history, and we shared the most important values
Partners
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the Parter:
National organizations related to the purpose of investigation
What sector does our partner belong to?
Civil Society
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
The objective is to identify and develop conversations regarding the topic
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
No
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the Parter:
People from the academic field
What sector does our partner belong to?
Academia
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
The objective is to develop conversations with key informants and hire an academic for the development of algorithms
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
No
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the Parter:
Key individual actors from the political field
What sector does our partner belong to?
Government (&related)
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
The objective is to generate conversations with the only people who made statements on the subject and get in touch with the candidates' referents.
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
Yes
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the Parter:
Goverment of France
What sector does our partner belong to?
Government (&related)
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
The objective is to generate conversations with France due to its expertise on the subject
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
Yes
Who are your top 5 partners for this challenge? Please submit from MOST to LEAST important and state Name, Sector and a brief description of the (intended) collaboration.
Please state the name of the Parter:
UN Information Centre
What sector does our partner belong to?
United Nations
Please provide a brief description of the collaboration.
The objective is to contact them in relation to the public campaign
Is this a new and unusual partner for UNDP?
Yes
Learning questions
Learning question: What is your learning question for this challenge? What do you need to know or understand to work on your challenge statement?
What have been the shared concerns and values, the main priorities concerns and goals that can be found across the different governments?
If we identify these common concerns and values and propose them from our position as the UNDP, a neutral facilitator, then the government and the opposition will have more chances to build consensus and agree on policies to address the main problems of the country. Addressing and resolving citizens' problems can lead to a decrease in their dissatisfaction, which in turn, can improve their level of support for democracy.
This source of data is new for the country’s office but it is available for the general public. We will process all the 9 inauguration speeches in a different way, using an AI algorithm, from the existent sources, to create a completely new piece that reflects on the shared values of the country that allow us to propose a unifying consensus public discourse, along with new instances of dialogue
To what stage(s) in the learning cycle does your learning question relate?
Explore, Test
Usage of methods: Relating to your choice above, how will you use your methods & tools for this learning question? What value do these add in answering your learning question?
Artificial intelligence is at the heart of our efforts to identify patterns and commonalities in the opening speeches of different presidents across political parties. This exercise not only serves as a proof of concept but also provides a prototype for testing the potential of AI to support democratic governance. We will leverage collective intelligence to identify past and future plans for AI and work towards regulating this field to balance its possibilities and risks.
By harnessing the power of AI, we can more effectively analyze and understand the nuances of political discourse, leading to more informed decision-making. However, we must also recognize and address the potential risks that come with this technology, such as bias or lack of transparency. Through collaboration and regulation, we can ensure that AI serves the public good and contributes to a more transparent and inclusive democracy.
Existing data gaps: Relating to your choice above, what existing gaps in data or information do these new sources of data addressing? What value do these add in answering your learning question?
To the best of our knowledge, this work is unprecedented in our country.
Closing
Early leads to grow: Think about the possible grow phase for this challenge - who might benefit from your work on this challenge or who might be the champions in your country that you should inform or collaborate with early on to help you grow this challenge?
This project is meant as a sprint of a short project with high visibility and impact. It will be launched with a massive comms campaign during the election period. It is a quick win for the UNDP to position itself, again, as a facilitator of unity and consensus building among the ruling class, political and social leaders, and candidates from different political parties of the country. The result of this dialogue will have a spillover effect in the support of democracy and the achievement of higher levels of social cohesion. Although Argentina does not face political violence or inner conflicts, social unrest is a problem today.
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